read before tomorrow's market open

October 29, 2023

Evening traders.

Your favorite market analysts are back again with another big Sunday report to get you ready for the week ahead.

We’ve got a massive week of events/news ahead with the FED rate decision, unemployment rate, JOLTS, Payrolls, consumer confidence, and more.

Let’s get into it…

Impact Snapshot

  • Employment Cost Index - Tuesday

  • Consumer Confidence - Tuesday

  • ADP Payrolls - Wednesday

  • JOLTS Job Openings - Wednesday

  • FED Rate Decision - Wednesday

  • Jobless Claims - Thursday

  • Nonfarm Payrolls - Friday

  • Unemployment Rate - Friday

  • ISM Services PMI - Friday

Market Evaluation

An exciting week ahead, filled with economical reports and important earnings to close the month.

Eleven trading days after quarterly results kicked off, and the S&P 500 index has declined in nine.

Shares of the firms that missed on the top and bottom lines have trailed the S&P 500 by an average of 5.7% on the first day post earnings, the worst showing in a year.

This also marks the S&P 500's second weekly drop in a row. With just two sessions remaining in the month, the index is now down nearly 4% in October.

The widely held view amongst economists surveyed by CME Fedwatch is that the US Federal Reserve will leave the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25-5.50%.

For the second consecutive meeting despite 3Q GDP growth coming in hot, the jobs market remaining tight and inflation remaining well above the 2% target.

The uncertainty about the conflict in the Middle East continues, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path and 10-year Treasury yields knocking on 5% are behind such swings.

For companies missing on quarterly expectations on top of those macroeconomic events, a reflex response is pretty much a given.

Next week's earnings calendar features another set of heavyweights with reports of: 

Markets Breakdown

Markets hate uncertainty. There are bets of a year-end rally but at this late in the year, it would look like a V-shape recovery.

Those types of recoveries usually are response to significant policy interventions.

The probabilities of that happening are less favorable.

Market finding a balance area for 2-way trading would be a more expect-able outcome.

The main areas we will be looking moving forward is market’s ability to get back inside the multi-day balance and prominent POC of the TPO of this month (inside orange box at 4250s) or a breakout continuation towards the lower distribution.

Remember, once a range gets broken, on the upside it can act as resistance until confirmation of acceptance back inside.Read Friday’s session Twitter update here

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The targets we look heading to next week.

  • Upside Levels: 4180/4213/4236

  • Downside Levels: 4067/4043/4009

That’s all we’ve got for you on this fine Sunday.

Happy trading out there!

-The QuantVue Team