our $ES levels to trade - Thursday Brief

Morning team.

Your favorite futures analysts are back again with a quick market brief.

We’ve had another eventful week so let’s jump into this one…

Impact Snapshot

  • U.S. jobless claims rise slightly, remain in ultra-low territory

  • Gross domestic product in the U.S. expanded at an annual rate of 4.9%

  • Earnings Afterhours:

Market Evaluation

The low jobless claims suggest that employment conditions remain very strong and economic growth might not slow in the fourth quarter as many economists expect.

As such the Fed might need to raise rates a bit further. Low claims mean few layoffs. The rise in continued claims could mean that hiring is slowing down.

The sharp increase in GDP was more than double the rate of growth in the first six months of the year.

It was also the largest gain since 2014 excluding the pandemic years of 2020-2021.

A drop in big tech shares exerted pressure on the stock market, coinciding with a decline in Treasury yields. 

The Nasdaq on Wednesday recorded its worst day since Feb. 21. The correction since the summer is being driven by a surge in bond yields with the 10-year Treasury yield at one point this month crossing 5%.

It’s important to understand the weight of the Tech on the SP&500 and why the huge tech companies alone can drag the whole market down with them.

Markets Breakdown

If' you’ve been following us for a while, you would have heard about our longer timeframe outlook of the market, both on our market update videos and Substack.

It’s very important to look at where the price is going on the higher timeframes in order to not get caught up while intraday trading.

At the start of the month, we’ve made 2 Newsletters talking about the higher timeframe outlook and what it would mean if the price entered a higher timeframe distribution.Read the one posted at the 5 Oct. here👇:

Entering a higher range distribution favors rotations to the other side of it. 

You can visualize it by dragging a box from the post we’ve made weeks ago and move it across, a rejection from the exact bottom of the higher distribution box where bulls failed to re-claim the previous range and a drop back inside to the range and a rotation towards the other side of it.

Bulls need to try and defend the 4170 area in order to rotate back above the range. It’s a pretty strong zone and we will want to monitor market’s ability to rotate to the upside of the box or if the market is really that weak, find continuation to the htf range.

ES

The targets we look for until NY close & Targets to pay attention Tomorrow:

  • Upside Levels: 4225/4245/4265

  • Downside Levels: 4168/4154/4136

That’s all we got for ya in this one.

We’ll be back in your inbox on Sunday for the big report.

Enjoy your weekend, cheers!

-The QuantVue Team