open me before tomorrow's trading

Happy Sunday team.

It’s your favorite futures analysts back in your inbox with another big Sunday report heading the holiday trading week.

We’ve got FOMC minutes, Jobless claims, our levels we’ll be trading so let’s hop right into it…

Impact Snapshot

  • Existing Home Sales - Tuesday

  • FED FOMC Minutes - Tuesday

  • Jobless Claims - Wednesday

  • Durable Goods - Wednesday

  • Thanksgiving Day - Thursday

  • Services PMI - Friday

  • Manufacturing PMI - Friday

Market Evaluation

Stocks gained ground across the board last week, with a softer than expected inflation reading for the month of October sending the market into rally mode.

Since the start of November, all three major indexes are higher with the Nasdaq up about 10% while the S&P 500 is up almost 8%. The Dow has risen almost 6%

The economic narrative took a turn last week with the surprise inflation report for October, indicating that consumer prices increased at a slower pace than expected.

The economy is showing signs of moderation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may have concluded its interest rate hikes and could potentially achieve a "soft landing." 

This scenario aims for a gradual easing of inflation to the central bank's 2% target without triggering a recession.

Next week is shaped to be holiday-shortened with Thanksgiving on Thursday.

Eyes will be on Consumer sentiment and Manufacturing data to highlight the economical reports of the week.

Markets Breakdown

Friday’s session continued the theme of balance as the market awaits further market generated information for it’s next directional move.

After Tuesday’s upside gap which was a break from balance and a gap-fill of a previous important resistance, the market has been on a 4-day balance that has favored range-bound trading.

The P shaped formation is an identification of a short covering rally to mark what you’ve probably heard of as a year-end rally.

There was no meaningful continuation to the upside after the initial upside gap of Tuesday to support this upside as of now, with the market getting rejected twice from our identified key resistance gap formation we’ve highlighted on our market reports.

Next week we will look for clues of the markets ability to get new buyers with strong volume support in order to see another upside continuation or falling back to the previous balance areas for some gap-filling.

There is no doubt that the underlying market structure is very weak with several gaps that opened to the upside that have yet to be tested.

We will monitor markets ability to remain in balance or a break from it.

ES

The tone for the week ahead will be set on the market’s ability to remain above 4500. The ability to hold above 4500 will see attempts to break out from the next upside gap resistance and possibly find continuation out of balance. Fail to hold 4500 and close bellow it will see a gap fill to the downside with the next balance area bellow as main area of interest. 

The targets we look for in the week ahead.

  • Upside Levels: 4543/4554/4601

  • Downside Levels: 4500/4480/4443 

That’s all we got today!

We’ll see you again with some EXCITING news on Tuesday…😈

Stay tuned!

-The QuantVue Team