open me before tomorrow - Sunday brief

Afternoon traders.

What a week of trading that was…

We’re back again with another Sunday brief to get you up to speed before the final trading week before Christmas.

Let’s dive in…

Impact Snapshot

• Consumer Confidence - Wednesday

• Final GDP q/q - Thursday

• Unemployment Claims - Thursday

• Core PCE Inflation - Friday

• Consumer Sentiment - Friday

Market Evaluation

The S&P500 stretched its winning streak to the seventh week, as the Federal Reserve held its monetary policy steady and indicated rate cuts for next year.

The Fed kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, the third consecutive pause and lowered its median rate and inflation expectations through 2025.

Key to the Fed's call for more rate cuts in 2024 is the central bank's belief that inflation is falling faster to its 2% target than previously hoped.

A fresh reading of the Fed's preferred inflation measure will put the market rally to the test in the week ahead.

The November release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is set to release on Friday.

The economic calendar will also feature updates on housing, consumer confidence, and the final reading of third quarter economic growth.

Markets Breakdown

Friday was an inside balance day. After the upside continuation on the FOMC day. market found range bound activity within the Thursday’s range.

The first thing we will be looking heading on the week ahead is monitoring market’s ability to break from the short term balance area.

The key zones that will set the tone for this are sitting at the 4736 on the downside. Break and hold bellow 4736 can see a more serious correction in this market.

On the upside, we will be looking at market’s ability to breakout from the flip zone for any meaningful continuation to occur.

If the market start a directional move and fails to re-claim these important zones, we will be looking at the exact opposite of the balance area for range-bound activity.

The market is anticipating the PCE inflation on Friday so we can expect some range-bound activity as with any major economical release.

There is no meaningful breakout unless it’s supported by strong volume.

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The key points of reference to pay attention going into the week ahead.

• Upside Levels: 4796/4821/4853

• Downside Levels: 4736/4708/4689

That’s all we got for you today.

As always, share this with 1 friend if you found some value.

We’ll see you Tuesday!

-The QuantVue Team