is the FED backed into a corner?

What’s up traders.

Coming in hot this Thursday evening with another market brief.

We’ve got a lot to digest after CPI today so let’s get into it…

Impact Snapshot

  • Jobless claims stay below 210,000 for fourth straight week

  • CPI report shows headline inflation for September was hotter than forecast.

  • Strong Earning season starting tomorrow

Market Evaluation

Stocks fell and Treasury yields with U.S. Dollar rose as data bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve is nowhere near declaring victory over inflation.

Our favorite correlation to watch when determining the overall market health are the Treasure Yields and U.S. Dollar and today’s market session was a clear indication of how the market took the catalyst of CPI and moved the market after

Consumer inflation data bolstered speculation on another Federal Reserve rate hike, even if the central bank decides to pause next month.

The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.

Starting tomorrow, strong earning season begin which can make for some eventful market conditions heading into next week.

Markets Breakdown

Today’s session offered opportunity with volatility hitting the market at the time of the CPI report.

Overnight session over extended itself as we’ve approached the timing of the CPI release report, a very common behavior before big economical reports.

The eyes were at the 4402 that we’ve posted and it’s ability to hold price above which failed to do so after continuation supported by strong volume, offered a confirmation of the downside continuation.

Market continued to the downside and managed to re-trace back our last pivot of 4367 which saw continuation towards 4381 where the market closed.

The key thing we are looking here is that the gap to the upside remains unfilled and bulls ability to close and bears want to retrace back bellow 4300 which has odds if acceptance is found bellow, for a complete roll-over to touch the other side of it.

ES

Some targets to pay attention to:

  • Upside Levels: 4392/4420/4443

  • Downside Levels: 4367/4323/4300

That’s all we got for you in today’s brief.

Be sure to share this with a friend and comment your thoughts if you found some value!

We’ll see you on Sunday for the big pre-week report.

Cheers.

-The QuantVue Team