how we're trading $ES in November

Mornin’ traders.

We’re back again with another ES market breakdown for you guys.

We’ve got Powell speaking today 2pm EST so let’s jump into this one…

Impact Snapshot

  • Continuing Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Since Mid-April

  • Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 2:00pm ET

Market Evaluation

The stock market struggled for direction after a big rally, with traders unwilling to make any big commitments as they awaited remarks from Jerome Powell at 2:00pm.

The S&P 500 was up eight days in a row. That's the longest winning streak since November 2021.

Markets usually require a catalyst in order to move. We’ve talked about the uneventful nature due to the lack of economical reports.

Heading into the next week, market will look forward for a more rich economical reports with CPI on Tuesday.

Markets Breakdown

If you’ve been reading our reports for a while you’ve heard us say that the market was over extended to the downside when it was reaching low 4100s due to serious emotional selling.

All the momentum traders jumped in and started shorting bellow a previous consolidation area where the market has spent months ranging back and forth.

We’ve said it many times, when a market is too short, it strengthens the market.

The slightest move to the upside, triggered a short liquidation rally and all the momentum traders start to pilling in, further pushing the market that left several gaps to the upside.

This was a good example of knowing where you are on the higher timeframes and not over extending yourself.

Right now, there is no backing and filling, the healthy thing would be for the market to build a base and back fill these gaps, spend some time there then continue to the upside.

Sharp moves like that doesn’t show a healthy structure and can easily fall back down even faster unless there is a proper manner of re-claiming the previous areas. 

Exercise caution when you’re looking at longs moving forward from here.

ES

Our morning brief that we’ve posted in the overnight session highlighted all the above. Market opened with an upside gap that was instantly corrected back to the settle and ranged around our pivot. The market needs to build a proper base on the 4400s to have any chance for continuation to the upside. 

The targets we look for until NY close & Targets to pay attention Tomorrow:

  • Upside Levels: 4410/4422/4443

  • Downside Levels: 4373/4361/4341

We hope you enjoyed another brief from the team here at QuantVue.

If you found value, all we ask is that you share it with 1, maybe 2 friends!

See ya Sunday!

-QuantVue Team