how to trade $ES in November

Mornin’ traders.

Bit of a change up on our Substack posts as we wanted the FOMC news week to digest a bit more.

Anyway…we’ve got another action packed brief for you so let’s get right into it.

Impact Snapshot

  • U.S. Jobs Report - 8:30am ET

  • ISM Services PMI - 10:00am ET

Market Evaluation

Global stocks are having their strongest weekly rally in a year, global yields are sliding and corporate earnings reports have been surprisingly robust.

Falling bond yields benefit stocks because they lower the cost of borrowing in the economy, potentially stimulating growth, which, ultimately, drives stocks higher.

World stocks are up 4.2% for the week so far, their largest weekly rise since November 2022.

U.S. stocks enjoyed a broad rally Thursday, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors ending the day in positive territory.

The Federal Reserve’s rating-setting group on Wednesday unanimously agreed to hold the key federal funds rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, where it has been since July.

Powell added that the FOMC is not considering or even discussing rate reductions at this time.

All eyes is on today’s jobs report which is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting 180,000 new roles were added to the economy last month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8%. 

Depending the outcome it can act as a catalyst for the next directional move.

Markets Breakdown

If you recall our comments about a market state of “balance” and “imbalance”, you would have understood what Thursdays session would have been.

We always highlight the importance of being able to figure where these balance areas are and how much the market can extend in order to reach them.

After finding acceptance inside the prior 3-day balance, the RTH session Thursday, opened with an upside gap and continued it’s rally with no interest of filling the gap opened.

One of the gap guideline rules we mention on our market briefs as well is:

Go with all gaps that are not filled fairly quickly

The early market strength continued to the upside with the target being the next balance area to the upside with the price closing just bellow it.

On our market brief videos last week we gave doubtful thoughts that the market would continue to the downside bellow 4150s and not at least re-test the prior balance ares where the market consolidated for 2 months. 

This is exactly why we said “paying attention” to where the market is right now and “don’t over extent” while knowing the context of it.

ES

The higher timeframe scenarios we will be looking are, acceptance into the multi-day balance area to the upside, in order to find 2-way trading and yet another attempt to fill the upside gap, or reject back to the 3-day balance area and fill the gap for a re-test.

That’s all we got for you today.

Enjoy your weekend!

-QuantVue Team

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