FED hinting at a bearish 2024?

Afternoon team!

We’ve got another action packed report for you today with the FED recently hinting at much less rate cuts this year.

Let’s breakdown the exact levels us traders need to pay attention to this week & into the rest of the month.

Let’s jump in…

Impact Snapshot

• Trade Balance - Wednesday

• Consumer Credit - Wednesday

Market Evaluation

The S&P500 saw little movement to open Tuesday following a sell-off which was influenced by higher bond yields and worries that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as much as Investors were hopping for.

The resilient economy has prompted traders to tap the brakes on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts in 2024.

The market was getting too optimistic since last year about the “perfect outlook” for rate cuts and now they need to adapt with the new reality.

Without any relevant economic reports on schedule, traders will be focused on remarks of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on whether the latest economic reports will impact their rate outlooks.

Markets Breakdown

The lack of critical economical releases this week offered mostly range bound activity after the initial upside breakout of last Friday.

As we’ve been highlighting for some time over on X, the key objective is building Value on these new highs which will trigger “acceptance of new prices”.

We always say “don’t follow price” and you can see it happen over and over again with people focusing too much at the momentum of “price” rather than paying attention to what the market is really trying to do.

The lacked follow-through to the downside yesterday, saw a beautiful reversal back towards the range as aggressive sellers got absorbed by passive buyers.

As always, low volume nodes reject prices while high volume nodes act as magnets of price which is exactly what played out yesterday again, with price returned back towards the middle of the distribution area.

Bulls must continue to hold the market above the big distribution area box bellow and target continuation and acceptance in the 5000s

Bears need to find proper acceptance back bellow the “box”. That will trigger a re-test of the high volume node and a possible rotation towards the other end of the distribution.

ES

The targets we look for until NY close & Targets to pay attention Tomorrow:

• Upside Levels: 4986/5012/5021

• Downside Levels: 4950/4932/4918

Alright that’s all we got for you today.

We’ll see you on Thursday!

-The QuantVue Team

Disclaimer: Futures and options trading carries a significant level of risk and may lead to substantial financial losses. The content provided in this newsletter is solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as a trade recommendation or financial advice. It is essential for readers to independently assess and make their own investment decisions, taking into consideration their personal financial situation and risk tolerance.